The One China Policy at 45: What’s Working, What Isn’t, and What’s Next?
Jointly hosted by the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, our conference in connection with The Marshall Papers essay series focused on the U.S.’ Taiwan policy and explored the strengths and weaknesses of the four-decade old “One China Policy.” While America’s Taiwan policy has undoubtedly helped maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, new dynamics are working to stress and potentially undermine this status quo.
This conference brought together a range of voices and perspectives to help identify how the U.S., in concert with Taiwan and other partners and allies, can continue to ensure that conflict can be avoided. Panels and topics included:
- The State of the Status Quo assessed the current situation in and around the Taiwan Strait, focusing on recent contingent and structural changes that undermine peace and stability in the region.
- What Deters? And What Are We Deterring? explored the efficacy of U.S. actions on Beijing’s perceptions of costs and risks and considered how we can deter scenarios short of invasion.
- Non-Military Deterrence examined how the threats of economic and financial pain could bolster deterrence signaling.
- Coalition Building investigated how we can build more political space for military and diplomatic engagement on Taiwan with key allies, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and EU members.